Vagaries of the British Electoral System

The dynamics of voting and popular opinion are complex. The Lib Dem victory in Eastleigh was not expected by many. Even the victors seem relieved and a touch surprised that they pulled it off. Obviously a big factor has been the UKIP intrusion which has taken votes from both the governing parties. Many would have thought that Cameron's decision to call a referendum on Europe would have reduced the UKIP appeal by stealing their clothes. However, it does not always work that way. Voting is not a wholly rational process. What a party like UKIP, or any new or marginal party of whatever persuasion, has to struggle with is being taken seriously. This is a far bigger hurdle than the attractiveness or otherwise of particular policies. In fact, many of UKIP's policies are not particularly attractive and if opinion polls were held on them as separate issues many parts of its prospectus would be rejected by the public, but that is often not what counts. By saying that we need to hold a referendum on Europe, Cameron has, in effect, said to the public that what UKIP is saying is important. If the public then go on and vote for UKIP then it is not so strange. Having given them credibility, don't be shocked if they get more support. In fact, UKIP is the biggest danger to the Concervative's hold on power and the more Conservatives seem to be being influenced by UKIP the bigger that danger will be to them. If UKIP did not exist the Tories would be able to look at the next election with confidence. However, with the British first past the post electoral system the splitting of votes on the right could produce a very uncertain situation. If by the time of the next election Labour, Lib Dems, UKIP and Concervatives were all polling between 20 and 30 percent of the vote then the outcome of a general election could be a complete lottery. A party with 28% support could, in theory, obtain an over-all majority. That is a figure that is not inconceivable for any of the four. A rather similar situation already exists in Scotland. The Tories may yet regret having set themselves so firmly against proportional representation.