Geoffrey Manning and Ed Snowdon's action have changed the world in two significant ways that will have long term consequences. Both are in the area of goodwill or the lack of it. The first is that they have changed the image of Russia and of Latin America to a small but significant degree. The second, and even more important, is that they have made Germany and a number of other countries suspicious of the USA to an altogether new degree. Unless this latter factor can be speedily reversed, and it probably will not be, the fall-out is likely to be major in the medium term.
The sight of an idealist dissident being hunted by a great power and fleeing to safety with another such is not new to us. All through the Cold War there was a steady stream of such people leaving Russia and fleeing to the USA which thereby retained its credentials as the land of freedom, openness and justice. The recent sight of just such a person going in the opposite direction is of enormous significance and will change the way people in many lands feel about the overall balance of good and evil in the world. The revelation of American spying activities and the realisation that the internet has become the largest public surveillance machine ever invented is also going to change attitudes. Todays news about Lavabit seems to be just the latest twist. In Germany there is now distinct paranoia around what the USA uses its spying for. Germany depends heavily of intellectual property and there is more than a suspicion that US espionage is not just used for combatting terrorism, but is used to give American industry an unfair advantage.
Germany is the leading power in Europe. It's attitude will affect policy in Europe as a whole. Does this matter? Most certainly. Europe is significantly under-estimated. Most people are unaware that the EU is the largest economy in the world. The EU is going through quite a bit of internal stress as a result of substantial internal restructuring that is going on, but these changes will, in due course, bear fruit. If it were to become the case that it could no longer be assumed that Europe will view the USA as a favoured and trusted partner, but rather was coming to see it as a “false friend” as Der Spiegel headlines in its current issue, we would be in a very different world. I have been suggesting for some time that such a world is on its way.
The technology of fracking is going to make the USA self-sufficient in energy and even an exporter. This is going to extend the world's dependence upon fossil fuel by at least a couple of decades, and especially in the USA. At the same time, Europe, and especially Germany, is straining to reduce its dependence on fossil fuel. Initially this is to make Europe less dependent on Russia, but it also makes it less dependent on the USA. The shift to renewables is also a stimulant to technological change and growth, a stimulus that will not be felt much in North America. All this means that the style of economy and technology on opposite sides of the Atlantic is set to diverge. America may well start to rely upon its energy exports and this will have a dampening effect on other aspects of its industry. Many think that energy independence will make America richer, but it may simply make it less progressive - look at other resource rich countries around the world.
Most of the talk of change in the world order has focussed on the emergence of the BRICS. This is surely over-played. Certainly China, Brazil, India and Russia, and even South Africa, are making progress, but there are substantial obstacles to them achieving parity with the USA and Europe in terms of living standards. Only Russia has any real chance of dong so. However, there is now an increasing likelihood of Europe balancing its external relations by co-operating more with the BRICS countries and less with the USA. This will lead to more tensions and less certainties.
Another crucial test is what happens in Syria. Having created chaos and insecurity in Iraq and Libya the Western powers are now doing their best to repeat the story in Syria, probably with some hope of doing it again in Iran later. However, the yet further demonstration in Egypt that the West's commitment to democracy is a paper thin mask, as if one were still needed, may be producing a gradual shift in what is possible in that region. Besides the create-chaos-and-exploit-the-weakness strategy may be seen as less necessary now that in their different ways, the USA and the EU re making themselves less dependent on Middle Eastern oil. In Syria, Russia has a strong stake and for this reason alone, the Assad regime is tougher than was that of Gaddafi. If the West proves unable to unseat Assad, it will be the end of an era, and a great many people in the region will rightly be relieved.
Eventually the Middle East might sort itself out if outside powers would leave it alone - a forlorn hope, I'm afraid. Gradually the BRICS will advnce, but not as much as many people are predicting. The really big players are still the USA and the EU. Much depends on relations between them and I foresee these becoming increasingly strained as the two great powers move in opposite directions over energy and trust each other less. This shift has not been caused by Manning and Snowdon, it was already under way, but their exposure of American spying is likely to have proved to be one of those turning point events that crystalises a change the conditions for which were accumulating waiting for just such a trigger.